網際網路已死,且很無聊

Posted: 二月 28, 2008 in 非關分類

看到一篇文章, 標題很有趣 「The Internet is Dead and Boring

作者卻是一個擁有 NBA 球隊和許多副業的大老闆 ….

雖然標題聳動了一點 但內容到是滿中肯的 …

想練練英文 所以翻譯了一下 …. 但翻的很爛 …

太久沒念英文了   有錯請指證 0rz

之後偶而 就找幾篇文章來翻翻吧~  希望英文可以好一點 …

[原文網址]

A lot of people are all up and upset about my comments that the Internet is dead and boring. Well guess what, it is. Every new technological, mechanical or intellectual breakthrough has its day, days, months and years. But they don’t rule forever. That’s the reality.
有許多人對我的評論「網際網路已死、並且很無聊」感到憤怒亦或者是苦惱。但不論如何,所有新的技術、工業建設或者是新的創新都有他的時效性,並不會一直是一種常規,你必須要接受這個事實。
Every generation has its defining breakthrough. Cars, TV, Radio, Planes,highways, the wheel, the printing press, the list goes on forever. I’m sure in each generation to whom the invention was a breakthrough it may have been heretical to consider those inventions “dead and boring". The reality is that at some point they stop changing. They stop evolving. They become utilities or utilitarian and are taken for granted.
每一個世代都有他所謂的新的突破。汽車、電視、收音機、飛機、鐵路、輪軸技術亦或者是造紙術,上述所有東西都有他過時的一天。我敢保證如果我對每一世代的人指出他們所謂的創新已死或者是很無聊都會被視為是一個白癡。但現實來說這些所謂的創新技術是不是都已經停止改變(進化)了呢?他們停止了進化,且被當作是日常生活中隨處可見的一種尋常東西。
Some of you may not want to admit it, but that’s exactly what the net has become. A utility. It has stopped evolving. Your Internet experience today is not much different than it was 5 years ago.
或許你們中有人會不同意我的看法,但這就是為什麼我提到現代網際網路的一個走向 一個類似水、電的平凡東西,他已經穩定且不再變化了。你現在所使用的網路與你五年前使用的其實並沒有什麼太大的差別。
That’s not to say the impact of the Internet on the entire planet hasn’t been off the charts. It has been. It has changed the lives of billions of people and it will continue to be a utility to billions of people. Just like cars, TVs, Radio, Planes, Highways, you get the point.
這並不是說網際網路對我們已經沒有太大的影響了。沒錯,他曾經是,他改變了地球上述藝人的生活,但他現在對人們來說已經變成了一種在平凡不過的生活必需品。就跟現在你所認為的汽車、電視、收音機、飛機、鐵路等一樣。
Some people have tried to make the point that Web 2.0 is proof that the Internet is evolving. Actually it is the exact opposite. Web 2.0 is proof that the Internet has stopped evolving and stabilized as a platform. Its very very difficult to develop applications on a platform that is ever changing. Things stop working in that environment. Internet 1.0 wasn’t the most stable development environment. To days Internet is stable specifically because its now boring.(easy to avoid browser and script differences excluded)
或許有些人會試著指出 WEB 2.0 的出現確實是網際網路的一種演化啊!但他卻恰恰好是相反的。 WEB 2.0 的出現反而更證明了網際網路的停止演化且趨於穩定的像是一個供使用者開發東西的平台。在一直改變的平台上開發應用程式是一件非常非常困難的事。在那種環境下,許有事情都似乎停止了的一樣毫無進展。但在經過這些日子的努力後,網際網路已經趨於穩定了,因為他已經開始無聊了。(瀏覽器或 Scripts 的差異則不包括)
Applications like Myspace, Facebook, Youtube, etc were able to explode in popularity because they worked. No one had to worry about their ISP making a change and things not working. The days of walled gardens like AOL, Prodigy and others were gone. The days of always on connections were not only upon us, but in sufficient numbers at home, work and school, that the applications ran fast enough to hold our interest and compel us to participate. In other words, the Internet stabilized. Great software was developed to run on the software.
MyspaceFacebookYoutube 這樣的應用都在短期間呈現爆炸性成長,沒有人會擔心假如當他的網路供應商出問題時要怎麼辦(根本不認為這是一個問題)。從前 AOLProdigy 等公司所築起的圍牆已經在慢慢的消失了。現在網路連線不中斷這要求已經變的可能且足以應付我們所需要的所有網路要求了。換句話來說,網際網路已經趨於穩定狀態了。在這平台上所執行的所所多多軟體也已經陸續竄出。
Just as a reminder to some, Myspace, Facebook, Youtube, etc are not “the Internet". They are software applications that run on the Internet. Just like MicroSoft Excel is a software application that runs on MicroSoft and Apple operating systems.
再提醒一次 MyspaceFacebookYoutube 不是一個網際網路,他們是建築在網際網路上的一種軟體、應用。就跟微軟公司的辦公室軟體試算表(EXCEL)一樣是一個執行在微軟或蘋果作業系統上的軟體一樣。
The days of the Internet creating explosively exciting ideas are dead. They are dead until bandwidth throughput to the home reaches far higher numbers than the vast majority of broadband users get today.
曾經網際網路上那些令人震驚的創意都已經成為了過去。在當人們今天可獲取之高頻寬的環境下那些所謂的創新、創意就成為了過去。
Few people’s actual throughput to their homes have increased more than 5mbs in the past 5 years, and few people’s throughput (if you dint understand the difference between throughput and the marketed downstream speeds your read from your ISP, you should) to their homes will increase more than 10mbs in the next 5 years. That’s not enough to define a platform that allows really smart people to come up with groundbreaking ideas.
少部分的人在過去五年內家裡可用頻寬已經超過了 5 MB/Sec,且少部分人家裡可用之頻寬在未來十年內經可在增加超過 10 MB/Sec。這些並不足以定義一個平台是否能讓一些聰明的使用者提出更創新的點子。
In fact, if you index the expected growth in bandwidth consumption by applications that are heavy LAST MILE bandwidth users (as opposed to the Internet backbone where there is plenty of bandwidth but consumers cant get to it) vs the actual increase in LAST MILE bandwidth available to the home, our net effective throughput to the home could decline over the next few years. The Internet is like a highway. There is plenty of room for everyone to go as fast as the throughput will let you go, that is until the traffic forces everyone to slow down.
現實上,如果你能瞭解應用軟體所需要消耗之最後一哩的頻寬與現今最後一哩網路頻寬之增長在物來幾年內的差距會越來越小的。網際網路就像是一條高速公路。可以讓很多的使用者行駛,卻礙於交通因素使得大家都沒辦法跑得這樣快。
For some reason a lot of people don’t understand that concept.
但許多人卻步瞭解這個的重要性。(新技術促使最後一哩的開放,以能跟上骨幹網路之速度)
So, let me repeat, The days of the Internet creating explosively exciting ideas are dead for the foreseeable future..
所以讓我在重複一次,在可預見的未來網際網路將不會再有爆炸性的創新了。
The Internet is boring. That is not a bad thing. In fact its easy to make the argument that its a great thing. That it has become the utility that the people who worked to get it started firmly believed it would. That it finally is the platform for any number of mundane applications that are easy to write and that anyone can use and trust.
網際網路無聊死了。這並不是一個壞事。事實上要爭執網際網路是一個創新的事是很容易的。但他變成越來越隨處可取卻是不爭的事實。所以最終他將會成為一個供使用者創造所多有趣應用的平台。
Just like wheels, printing presses, cars, TV, radio, electricity, water…..
就像輪軸、印表機、汽車、電視、收音機、電力、水….
When we reach a point

當我們可以達成共識時。

迴響
  1. 英文很爛的小毛 說道:

    你怎麼會這麼有耐心!!
    我連看中文版的,都無法很認真的看完。
    不過我會再找時間看的….
    (哈哈,因為我最近超忙的嘛…>////<)

  2. 英文很爛的小毛 說道:

    對了,有事沒事要記得關心我喔!

  3. brain 說道:

    哈 笨小毛 … 我一點沒耐心啊 …
    看我多久沒上來看了 @_@
    妳哪時回台灣啊?

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